Central Ohio’s Dual-Track Construction Economy

Introduction
This mid-year report offers members a glimpse into the Central Ohio construction economy. Central Ohio AGC analyzed permit data obtained from the City of Columbus and compared it with established forward-looking measures of design and planning activity. Together, these indicators reveal where our market stands today and suggest what is to come next.

Columbus Commercial Permits — Dual-Track Signals

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Permit activity has remained steady to rising over the past 24 months. Modest increases in permit counts, paired with more substantial gains in valuations, indicate larger projects are entering the pipeline. Spikes and dips reflect the timing of filings, seasonality, and the impact of mega-projects.

These mega‑projects include, Intel’s semiconductor fabs, continuing site work; the Honda/LG’s battery plant; Amgen’s manufacturing site; Anduril’s Arsenal‑1 defense facility; Amazon’s expanding data centers; Ohio State University’s significant investments in the Wexner Medical Center inpatient hospital, Biomedical & Materials Engineering Complex, and other health and research facilities; Nationwide Children’s Hospital’s 750,000 sq ft patient tower and The City of Columbus’s new Home Road water plant northwest of Dublin.

Together, these projects keep Central Ohio in a long-term construction boom, even as bread-and-butter projects—such as schools, retail centers, and modest multifamily developments—face the same financing and demand constraints seen across the Midwest.

Architecture Billings Index (ABI) — Midwest Lags

ABI readings remain below 50, signaling continued contraction in design activity. The Midwest lags behind the national average, reflecting its higher concentration of industrial and institutional projects and slower population growth. By contrast, the South benefits from population inflows, the West is driven by tech and multifamily, and the Northeast experiences occasional boosts from healthcare and universities.

​AGC of America notes the same national picture: infrastructure and data centers are strong, while office, multifamily, and some manufacturing remain weak.

​Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) — Planning at Record Highs

DMI reached record levels in 2025, driven by large national projects. July alone saw a 20% monthly increase. At the same time, Dodge reported that U.S. starts declined—proof of the lag between planning optimism and actual construction.

Locally, permit valuations are climbing thanks to mega-projects, but Central Ohio does not yet mirror the extraordinary surge seen nationally in planning.

ABI vs DMI — Divergence Explained

The divergence is clear: owners are planning at record levels (DMI), but architects still report weak billings (ABI). In Central Ohio, permit issuance remains steady, but design work has not kept pace. This reflects delayed financing and approvals. If planning strength persists, design and construction will follow.

​Summary and Outlook (12-18 months)
Permits: steady-to-rising, with valuations lifted by mega-projects. ABI: weak nationally and in the Midwest. DMI: record highs nationally.

Central Ohio remains a dual-track economy: booming at the top end with mega-projects, constrained for everyday work. Over the next 12–18 months, expect steady activity and a broader upswing by 2026 as today’s planning converts into design and construction. Nationally, AGC of America projects continued strength in infrastructure and data centers, but softness in other areas.

Questions? Email Daniel Edwards, Central Ohio AGC Chief Executive Officer